China on Track to Become World’s Leading Semiconductor Foundry Hub by 2030

Despite escalating U.S. export restrictions and ongoing geopolitical headwinds, China is accelerating toward a dominant position in global semiconductor manufacturing. According to new forecasts from Yole Group, a leading market research and technology consulting firm, China could surpass Taiwan and become the world’s largest semiconductor foundry hub by 2030 holding as much as 30% of global installed capacity.

Currently, Taiwan leads global foundry output with 23% of installed capacity, followed by China at 21%, South Korea at 19%, Japan at 13%, the United States at 10%, and Europe at 8%. But that distribution is rapidly shifting. With Beijing’s strategic emphasis on self-reliance in chip production and continued high-level state support, China is closing the gap fast.

In 2024, China produced 8.85 million wafers per month, representing a 15% increase from 2023. That number is expected to rise to 10.1 million wafers monthly by 2025, driven by rapid infrastructure expansion. A significant part of this growth comes from 18 newly constructed fabs, including a high-profile facility opened by Huahong Semiconductor in Wuxi, which began production in Q1 2025. These pure-play foundries are central to China’s long-term semiconductor ambitions, boosting both production scale and technological capabilities.

While the U.S. remains the largest consumer of wafers, accounting for 57% of global demand, its domestic capacity lags far behind. With only 10% of foundry capacity located on American soil, the U.S. continues to rely heavily on imports from Taiwan, South Korea, and increasingly, China. This supply chain imbalance adds urgency to Washington’s CHIPS Act initiatives but those are playing catch-up in a global race that Beijing is sprinting ahead in.

In contrast, Japan and Europe maintain foundry capacities more aligned with internal demand. Southeast Asian countries, including Singapore and Malaysia, contribute around 6% of global capacity. However, most of these fabs are foreign-owned and function primarily as offshore supply hubs for major markets like the U.S. and China.

If current trajectories hold, China’s ascent to the top of the foundry ladder will not just reshape the global semiconductor supply chain, it will also deepen the tech rivalry between Beijing and Washington. The implications will ripple across geopolitics, industrial policy, and global innovation for years to come.